Another Week, Another UKHSA Data Drop
And the numbers still seem to look "meh" on vaccination...
Week 47 UKHSA numbers have dropped, and here’s an update to the graph I’ve posted for the past few weeks on percentage of UK Delta deaths by vaccination status, this week with a third dotted line showing booster shot uptake.
Note that this is with population vaccination percentages as reported here. If we instead use the numbers reported in the UKHSA weekly reports, the graph looks worse (since the percentage of COVID deaths further outpaces the percentage of the population vaccinated).
This may be showing that boostering is working…at least in the short-term. It may be the reason why over the past two weeks vaccinated deaths have been a decreasing percentage of the total (down high of 80.1% on November 7 to 78.5% this week).
Now while this simplified picture does seem to tell a story challenging the “effective” side of the vaccine narrative (is this really what a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” should look like?), it does not tell the whole story.
In fact, it looks like the data coming out of the UK is proving to be a great example of a Simpson’s Paradox. This can be seen in a summary of this week’s latest numbers:
Looking at the death rates specifically, while overall case fatality ratio (CFR) of vaxxed vs. unvaxxed looks like the vaxxed have three times the CFR vs. the unvaxxed (0.65% vs. 0.22% cases ending in death), this is somewhat deceptive since in both subcategories of those under and over 50 years old, the unvaxxed have a higher CFR than the vaxxed (0.030% vs. 0.024% for <50 and 5.28% vs. 1.47% for >50).
Of course the reason for Simpson’s Paradox here making it look like the unvaxxed have an overall lower CFR of 0.22% is that large majority of unvaccinated cases are under 50 years old (315,257 vs. 11,586 over 50) whereas almost half of the vaccinated cases are older than 50 (193,842 vs. 250,189 under 50).
This is why you can look at this data and still argue that the vaccine is “effective” in reducing the worst outcomes of hospitalization and death since if you’re over 50, in the short term, the vaccines reduce CFR by 3.81% (5.28%-1.47%). And if you’re under 50 you also have a reduced CFR if you’re vaccinated, though the reduction is only 0.006% (0.030%-0.024%).
The CFR reduction of about 4% in the over 50 category has been pretty consistent since the earliest reports this summer. I guess whether the risks of the shot are worth a drop from CFR of 5.28% to 1.47% is the question if you’re over 50.
On the other hand, the 0.006% CFR reduction for those under 50 hardly seems worth the risk of myocarditis, pericarditis, blood clots, and neurological damage that seem especially to plague the younger shot recipients.
Overall, I’d say this is at best a big “meh” for vaccines. They sure don’t seem to be panning out as the Great Savior to lead us out of the pandemic.